Storm, great analysis. Thanks.

Nice analysis. right or wrong with your (and others) forcasts for the winter doesnt matter. I enjoy your forcasting and thoughts. With that said lets talk about the next storn. I know its early, as that model has it now is it surface temps along with the track that is the problem. And does this model show the 850 temps as trouble too.  And would you be as qick as JB to say all rain. Just tring to learn not put you on the spot. Thanks

All of the above. Surface temps are a problem as well as 850mb temps -- but that can all change with track. Right now the most prudent call would be low probability of wintry pcpn outside of the appalachains as there's no data supporting a winter storm. However, we're seven days away and as we've seen with this last event -- things can flip on a dime.

FYI--historical tidbit--every weak and moderate el nino winter has produced one 6"+ event in both NYC and Philly. The largest storm thus far has been 2.0"in NYC and 4.2" I believe in PHL. If we don't see a 6"+ storm the rest of the winter, it would be the first time in recorded history. Statistics are usually pretty accurate in determining future weather -- case in point -- remember my post in December saying no winter has finished above normal snow in NYC with no snow in November and December. That looks to turn out correct.

Who knows; maybe we'll see our 6"+ event in early March this year. It's been a wild winter.

probably early april

Someone please say that the Pacific Jet is coming back, or heck, even say that a Ridge will build over the east. We are way below normal for this time of year.

Its those brutal winds that are making it feel colder than what it should. My feet have gotten frost bite 3 times in 2 days.

Put on some socks dammit. LOL. Can't go out wearing sandals in this weather.

Put on some socks dammit. LOL. Can't go out wearing sandals in this weather.

LMAO!

Once again, the European blew the GFS out of the water in terms of detecting this major winter storm from 7 days in advance. Model verification has shown that the Euro is the way to go when forecasting in the medium (3-5) to long range (5+ out)

This was the Euro forecast for today, from 7 days ago:


[img width=600 height=644]http://i9.tinypic.com/4huom50.jpg[/img]


The current sfc panel:

[img width=600 height=419]http://i15.tinypic.com/4byhqtv.jpg[/img]


ECMWF nearly nailed the track from seven days out. It missed by 50 miles too far east -- but that's still real impressive. Obviously those 50 miles would have made a heck of a difference when talking sleet/snow.

An overlay GFS VS. Euro map -- this is a forecast from seven days ago -- the Euro fcst is in blue, the GFS in red:

[img width=600 height=449]http://i15.tinypic.com/43ekc5i.jpg[/img]


Note the apparent tendency for the GFS (as well as it's ensembles) to suppress in the medium-long range. Euro was deadly accurate.

For the short-term, the model of choice was the NAM-WRF.

Well, how about the next seven days? The ECMWF is signalling another interior Northeast snowstorm the middle of next week with a much more amplified solution than the GFS. Actually depicts a rapidly intensifying low in a similar place to this past event:

[img width=600 height=448]http://i18.tinypic.com/4hd3ryt.jpg[/img]

Too far away for details as you know -- however -- let's see how well the Euro does with next week. Taken verbatim, another significant snow in the interior, and heavy rain ending as snow for I-95. I'm not forecasting anything so don't try to put words in my mouth (you well know who I'm referring to)

At this point in time the large-scale indices remain favorable for a mean-trough near the NE US coast -- negative AO, slightly negative NAO. However, we do see some regime changes in the eastern pacific for a time; hence, a brief but certainly noticable temperature moderation is likely mid/latter part of next week. It will feel like a heat wave compared to today -- but temps only near to slightly above normal (low/mid 40's for NYC) I also continue to see an el nino induced Sub-tropical jet with plenty of storminess through the beginning of March. Only problem is temperatures are going to be very marginal. We've been in this well-below average temperature regime since the middle of January -- about 4-6 weeks. The warm pattern lasted around 6 weeks the first half of the winter. Climatologically speaking, it's not typical for a record-breaking cold pattern to last more than 4-6 weeks. Therefore, temps moderating to normal is a good idea for next week. I believe we'll see one more step-down to colder than normal the end of Feb into early March prior to going full-fledge spingtime warmth. The way this winter has been going I'm not that confident on snowstorm opportunities -- it's possible -- but we need to time the cold air and storminess perfectly. In closing, I'll probably bust (much?) too high with my 25-32" range (revised fcst from December) but not ruling it out.