It looks like the "clipper" tomorrow night will cause some flurries and perhaps a brief period of snow in portions of the area, which could leave behind a fresh coating. More importantly there will be some colder air filtering into the region on Sunday night and especially on President's Day. It doesn't look to stay cold for too long.

With the storm coming for Wednesday and Thursday, it will get here with the temperatures preceeding in the lower 40s. It of course will depend on exactly WHERE this potential storm will be tracking. If it were to cut up to our west and through the central Appalachians, then we may be looking at a period of snow starting on Wednesday night that will change over to rain in the city and the coast as the temperatures rise into the low 40s. Farther inland, there may be snow or ice which would last for a slightly longer period of time before mixing with or possibly changing over to rain on Thursday.

Either way it looks like a so-called "warmer storm" that we'll be dealing with, adn not one that will be confronted by the kind of fresh source of arctic air that we had back on Tuesday/Tuesday night.  It might just be that it's either snow and rain, but not prolonged dleet, like previous.

Thank you for the oppertunity for me to post!

Bill Evans

Hey Bill! Thanks for taking the time to post on our new board, it’s much appreciated!

First off, welcome to the new board and good job on cracking down over at 7online.

Do you think this storm has any chance to take a more coastal track, which could possibly allow for colder air to stay in?

I'm hoping Monmouth County, NJ isn't in for a repeat of the last storm.  The tree's look very pretty, but once is enough, thank you!

Nice to have you post here, Bill!

It could take a more coastal route.

The timing (isn't it always) the most important thing. We can come off the 42 degree temps and cold air cold in downsloping and take the storm on a more easterly route. If that happens then there will be all snow. That's also why at this early juncture that I think that it's snow or snow/rain and no sleet.


Bill Evans

Welcome Bill. Glad to see you joined! We were hoping you would.

Do you see a canadian high placed in SE Canada to allow for CAD or are we talking cold air from dynamics only?

WOW BILL EVANS POSTED HERE!!!!

I FEEL HONORED TO BE PART OF THIS BOARD

In response to the cold air question, it looks incredibly mild, at least it will feel that way mid week after all this cold. I think the air has to be driven by an upper level disturbance, as there doesn't look to be any really cold air in here mid week. It only may be "just cold enough".

Bill Evans

I'll take 30 degree with snow then 10 degree with sleet.

Bill,

Have you ever seen a storm do what that last storm did. I've never seen a sleet zone as widespread as that and it produced sleet near 30 degrees in DC and as low as 8 degrees near Poughkeepsie at the same time. What Met could ever have forecasted that?  if you or anyone else predicted 10 degree sleet we'd all think you were crazy. You should see the close proximity of 3-4" sleet here in MonmouthCounty to what was almost purely freezing rain. It's like Florida's rain on on side of the street and sun on the other. In some areas you go from a thin cove of sleet with tons of ice to pure 3-4" of sleet and no ice in a half of a mile.

How you doing Bill,

Agree strongly with your post. To me, I think it looks like another close call..

The energy diving out of Northern Canada COULD hook up with the shortwave over the southwest, but the PV is really suppressing the entire flow across the NE. Our s/w is going be crushed and any interaction will occur offshore.

Just looks like a light snow/rain clipper across the region.

John

I've been here 19 yeras in NYC and I've never seen the NWS issue a "Ice Storm Warning", especially for the metropolotan area and such a large area at that. That's why NYC Sanitation was also caught off guard.

That was a wild storm. 46" of snow at Albany and 3" ice NYC. What a range!

Bill Evans

Bill -- welcome.

Sounds like either a wet snow or rain scenario for next week.  Should be interesting to track. Thanks for the update Bill and welcome aboard.

Welcome Bill.  .    I am at Belleyare, in the lodge, kids are on the slopes, conditions are great, but very cold and windy.  I just wished thatfinaly after some nice snowfall, that it wouldn't be so darn cold....Sunday should be better, we are skiing locally, at our tiny little Holiday Mountain..LOL  Very overcast, some light flurry action going on.

Bill,

Don't know if you saw my ice storm photos from around Monmouth county; but the storm was very impressive down here. Haven't seen an icing event like this since the winter of '93-94, and prior to that, the 70's. That low-level cold air drainage was key as most would've gone over to plain rain without a northeasterly component. I knew Tuesday night an ice storm was in the works as temperatures stradily dropped through the low 20's and teens in most areas -- dew points hardly above 0 -- making for a perfect environment for icing. Quite a storm with thousands losing power -- plenty of folks still without power in eastern Monmouth county.

http://nycmetroweather.com/forums/index.php?topic=914.0

Bill, are you sure Albany got 46" out of that storm? I was reading amounts in the range of 20"+.

Where are you in Monmouth county? Took a drive to Ocean Twp. this morning and the trees looked about 3X worse than around my area. (if that's possible) Seemed like I was driving through Narnia with sparkling, glittering trees all around me.

There is no way Albaby had 46 inches of snow. Are we sure this is really Bill Evans. That makes it suspicious. I think this is a fair question to ask based on that quote. No?

Wow, Holiday is still around.  I use to go to Kutchers as a kid (40 some odd years ago) and ski there.  

The winds in Vermont are actually shutting down the lifts today.  Sounds like some tranquill excellent weather this weekend for skiing.

Yes it's Bill Evans. Probably just a typo. I know Burlington VT received 25.6" and that was one of the higher amounts in the Northeast.

I already said this....it is Bill.  I have contacted him personally and traced the connection back to his office.  Please stop asking this.

First time asked.

I wasn't directing the statement at you.

I think Bill meant west of albany. That is where some 38-45" amounts have been noted, including by the NY Times. Burlington got 25.6" on 1.94" liquid. So these other areas would need ove 3" liquid to get 45" of snow. I have a lot of reservations about what they got after seeing the Burlington ratio. I think we are dealing with some exaggerated snow totals given that it is President's day weekend and borderline skiers had written this year off. The higher amounts are almost a marketing game to get that borderline crowd excited again.

Thank you ice for a possible explanation.

Not to mention the high winds with this past storm which makes it very difficult to measure snowfall accurately.

As far as the snow totals go, I was referring to the areas west of Albany. Burlington, VT got the second highest one day total ever.

Skiing should be great this weekend with the wind calming and the temperatures around 20-25 for daytime highs upstate. 

As far as Saturday looks like the dynamics are pretty unfavorable as well as the surface flow pattern, with much of the moisture getting wrung out in and west of the Applachians,  so, I'm not too impressed with this clipper feature coming as it crosses the mountains.

There is  a strong short wave coming Sunday out of the northwest. The height falls and PVA from that system may kick off some afternoon and evening flurries and perhaps a brief period of heavier snow as the arctic boundary arrives. However much of the instability looks to be released in the form of a gusty wind.

The southern branch feature coming could cause precip here on Wednesday and into Thursday, but odds with this run strongly favor rain, since the lack of cold air. The European probably has the best solution with the next storm and the GFS is coming in line as well.

If there is going to be some snow with the system, it will happen via the closed low generating its own cold air and most likely to occur in the mountains.  Let's keep our fingers crossed!

Bill Evans

Bill
Do you ski or snowboard.  Some of your fellow workers at ABC7 were up sking at Killington a few weeks ago.  Helped them out with accomodatations on the mountain. Conditions weren't ideal then.  Getting better.  Hopefully it continues to improve so good skiing continues well into the end of March.

We all skii.

Our four kids ski, as well as my wife. We were at Killington last weekend and we are going to Belleyare this Sunday.

Bill

Welcome Bill. Killington is a great place for skiing when there are ideal conditions. Glad to see you are posting here.

Well, next time your up at the mountain, shoot me a PM and as a longtime skier at Killington, there are some private stashes I can take you on, away from the crowds which I'm sure you and the kids would love.

I love Killington. I think they have the best double diamond black runs in the NE next Sunday River.

And even if it's too cold all you have to do is hang around the Gondola and ride up, warm up, and ski down.

The kids love it. I will take you up on that offer. Thank you. I have to work next week, but next week is break and the wife and kids are either going to Killington or over to Windham.

We skii all over the NE in the Winter. We love it!

Bill Evans

Bill, you nailed the storm this week. Well  you didnt nail it, but you were probably the closest. I noticed that Goldberg had different numbers than you had given on your discussion before the storm. Do you guys go with what you feel on the day you are appearing on TV, or do you go with a consensus? Thanks!

Didn't think a southern guy would like the cold so much.

Will be up at Killington next weekend, which will be a quieter weekend.  We're hitting Loon and Cannon in New Hampshire these two days.  Actually leaving now.  Have a great weekend and ski safe.

HeyBill,

Wecome aboard!  A very classy move to share with us over here.   Looking forward to hearing from you as a regular!

welcome Bill, I would say 99% of the posters here are from your site, when you think about it , its amazing how many people actually posted on 7online.
your right yanks, as far as storm totals he was closer than anybody was but nobody predicted the wide spread ice storm. 

Camelback mountain PA, Hunter NY, and Jack Frost mt. PA are my three favorite ski locations. I'm not a big fan of Mountain Creek as most of the trails are narrow and it gets real crowded. At least in Camelback or Hunter you've got wide-open trails -- excellent packed powder conditions too. Bromley is the best VT ski resort, IMO. Haven't gone yet this winter but am planning on a day trip over the weekend.

RGWP, I agree noone saw the icing. But Bill Evans kept telling people it wouldn't be a big hit for the city. Even when other people started saying it would be, or even had a good chance for it, He stood by his stance.

Maybe that's why the NYC plows weren't ready -- there were people saying it wouldn't be big. Not naming names here but there were several meteorologists expecting a change to rain from NYC southward. Obviously that wasn't the case.

Wecome Bill, nice to have you posting here.

LarryAck, I responded to you under off topics about Holiday Mtn.

Lee Goldberg and I, along with the others do consult one another in the office. We all talk everyday and even on weekends during a storm.

I thought we were a little high when Lee came out with the expected accumulation map, and even then we were lower than the others. Consulting with Accu Weather was a chore as we talked them down as well and they put out an ccumulation may on Saturday that I has qwashed, as I thought that was way too early.

We have  a great group in the weather office and we all talk about weather a lot everyday which I greatly like.

We did miss the rain at the end which I find amazing and historic that the ice held on so long. The cold air at the surface never buckeled!

Bill Evans

Yes Bill it was quite a storm.....I love snow but leaving on Friday for a cruise, it was cancelled last year for the Feb 12th storm, keeping our fingers crossed this year.......

Wow Bill great to see you post here thanks,and i'm so glad to be a part of this!!!! :D

Snowamp... I'm heading to Bellayre Tuesday. How crowded was it this weekend?

I went Friday AM, was not too bad.  I could not tell you about today or tomorrow.  But, my little mountain over here where I am going tomorrrow, says it is very busy today. ENjoy, they day is supposed to be much warmer than yesterday.

Thanks snowamp. Hope you have good skiing!

welcome,bill!