This will definatly change,but it is nice to see the first gfs northeast hurricane of the season.Gfs in future runs will probably have this as an out to sea,Fl hit,NC hit,carribean to gulf storm,and probably once or twice the storm wont be there.

So here is our first fanatsy hurricane.Save it because it probably wont be there on next run

Yea, pretty fun stuff. This is the exact reason why Tropical Systems are so interesting. However, the thread this should go into can be found here....

Hurricane Season Thread

That storm has actually been there for a couple days now.

The GFS has already had this storm in Florida and New Orleans in the past few runs. Pick a dart and throw it at the wall and let's see where it lands next.

It is fantasy land, but fun to look at.

06z GFS

12z GFS

Very consistent in the +300 hr range

it we be cool to get a strong cat1 around here id think.

Ahh, GFS fantasy runs.
Burns you in winter and summer! Let the burning begin.
Haha. I agree, fun to look at.

It would be cool.

It is a miss on the 18z GFS. LOL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_312l.gif

Not really. This storm was originally a South Texas/northern Mexico hit for two runs, then New Orleans area, then Florida, then us for 2 runs , then NC and inland to NW Pa. and now this.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_slp_288l.gif

I only mean that it has had a STORM now for a couple days. Thats what i found interesting.

thats cool but i learned my lesson in the winter u cant trust this until 1 day out and even then itll break ur heart

06z GFS has a a donna like track(except a bit more inland north of NC).Has it crossing the keys,the hits the west coast of florida,cross Florida into the Atlantic then hitS NC and rides the coast just inland.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...en_m_loop.shtml

Yes, i know. I have been around long enough to know that. I just think it is fun to watch the model runs, and to see how they all pan out.

The summer is boring to me until the POSSIBILITY of a hurricane in the north east pops up.

i have a question is this cat 1 on the current run or just a strong tropical storm

This storm is an east coast threat which appears to be the model consensus. Before truncation is what I am looking at. It will be interesting to see when the NHC declares this wave an invest.

588MB thickness at the center of circulation! Man is that warm core and shows why there's almost never lightning near the center of a hurricane despite a wide 45-50,000 foot cloudtop at the center of stronger storms.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_slp_276l.gif

The latest gfs run(06z) nails us again(but just offshore)

LOOP
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...en_m_loop.shtml

STILL
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_ten_288m.gif

Is this the same storm as TD #2? This is when i'm in OBX. Getting a little worried.

TD2 is the front runner i think then you will get the other behind it,which is the real threat.

is it a tropical threat or more a noreaster type storm?

Tropical for sure, modeling shows a very organized storm with good outflow, but its a LONG LONG way away.

While still almost two weeks away and after a winter where two days was an eternity, what is the thinking if it comes up here? Trp Storm? Cat 1?

While chances are slim I'd like a CAT 1, some kind of interesting weather

ECM and GFS are agreeing on this. Accuweather also seems very concerned for what threat this wave after TD 2 poses on the east coast.

6z GFS

Hits Florida and than rides up the coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_288l.gif

...As a CAT 2 Hurricane. Were going to have a problem if this gets closer towards our area on future runs, or even makes landfall on Long Island.

06z Model Image

This is looking interesting, CAT 2 is troublesome though, we don't want too much of a storm.

VERY interesting observation Ive found. The farmers almanac predicts a hurricane threat from the 24th-26th of this month. The day were looking at appears to be the 24th via the GFS.

Farmers Almanac

This is starting to become a very interesting situation to follow.

I dont even read the the Farmers CRAP. IF they get LUCKY then they get lucky. Its like me saying there willbe a snow storm on Jan 15th though the 18th. i may get lucky and hit it.


love wacthing the models though. Still far out but tropics are finally becoming active!

The models are very interesting and fun to follow. Speaking of them, the 12z GFS should begin shortly

another east coast hit!

Very interesting. Its had the storm on the east now for a couple days.

When the 500mb Heights/PMSL come out I can see exactly how strong this thing is on this particular run.

Basardi video

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand...1&title=Set

its at 999 MB entering the U.S.

did anyone get the final MB?

The Raleigh Wx site I use seems to be messing up at the moment. I am trying to find a different site. It is definitely lower than a 999mb as thats only very weak Tropical Storm status at best.

That's huge. Long Island would be really flooded. No more internet service for Snowfreak.

can someone pls summarize what JB is saying? is he the one saying the setup is similar to floyd?

Yes, he is saying that the storm we are watching is also capable of becoming a major storm that can affect the east coast, and the setup is similar to how Floyd occurred, where it went, etc.

Yes he is. He also said that the pattern that we are in right now was similiar to the pattern that occured a week before Floyd. Him and Henry are really getting hype about this potential.

They calling for snow or rain?!?!? LOL

2pm UPDATE. CODE ORANGE!

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

satellite_eyes, I think a change in the name to this thread is warranted. This storm has become a real threat now.

wow im getting excited i was to young for floyd and i really didnt remember it