Good Morning All,
Any thoughts on upcoming events for the week. Looks we have a couple of clippers comomg through, then perhaps a slightly bigger event Tue./Wed. (precip type pending), ending with a major storm on Sat./Sun. (most likely rain). This is the hobbyist version. Anyone with more technical details to share?

Larry Cosgrove's newsletter this morning mentions a chaotic and active weather pattern through March 1. Beyond the intial 36 hour arctic air period, it'll be a much milder period but with enough cold air to cause threats of heavy snows in areas. Also mentions that this Tuesday is a tricky forecast for the northeast and he expects 1" to 4" wet snows along the "route 80 corridor".

what are the models saying ?? or is it too early yet.

Surprised no one's mentioning today. Snow squalls are possible late this afternoon into the evening as arctic air advects southeastward. The banding will be extremely locallized; however, locations that do experience the snow squalls could receive a quick T-1", maybe 2" dependent upon the amount of PVA associated w/ the trough. Right now the NAM-WRF is hinting at NW NJ to central NJ being the target zone for a snow squall this evening. Remember though, most folks will pick up no more than a coating - it's difficult to forecast the position of a snow squall before it develops. (another nowcasting situation)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_12z/wrf12.html

Folks on a line from NYC/coastal NJ eastward have a much lesser chance of squalls as the pcpn may dry out by the time it reaches you.

Not talking anything big - but it's something in this winter of el zippo. Looking like NYC may not break 10-15" this winter unless we have a major storm the end of the month/early March.

Edit: Just realized Mt. Holly mentions the possibility in there SWS.

Boundary layer temperatures are a concern for the mid-week system. 850's are below 0c; however, only light-moderate pcpn is being depicted on the NAM so we're talking mid/upper 30's and a chilly rain. This can change - just saying it looks like rain atm. Soundings don't support snow anywhere but far NW NJ and the poconos/catskills.

Storm, agree unless precip rates are higher and bring heights down (doesn't look like it now). I still have a good shot of wet snow where I am but not a big deal. If all falls into place could be a 1" to 3" snow event inland and just flakes in the air on the coast before a change to some light rain showers.

nobodys talking because the other 2 times nothing happened

[quote author=robbbs link=topic=993.msg6341#msg6341 date=1171812319]
[quote author=Stormchaser link=topic=993.msg6339#msg6339 date=1171811612]
Boundary layer temperatures are a concern for the mid-week system. 850's are below 0c; however, only light-moderate pcpn is being depicted on the NAM so we're talking mid/upper 30's and a chilly rain. This can change - just saying it looks like rain atm. Soundings don't support snow anywhere but far NW NJ and the poconos/catskills.
[/quote]

Storm, agree unless precip rates are higher and bring heights down (doesn't look like it now). I still have a good shot of wet snow where I am but not a big deal. If all falls into place could be a 1" to 3" snow event inland and just flakes in the air on the coast before a change to some light rain showers.

thats why I said it looks like
[img width=32 height=36]http://i13.tinypic.com/40o5j07.gif[/img]

[quote author=rgwp96 link=topic=993.msg6344#msg6344 date=1171812450]
[quote author=robbbs link=topic=993.msg6341#msg6341 date=1171812319]
[quote author=Stormchaser link=topic=993.msg6339#msg6339 date=1171811612]
Boundary layer temperatures are a concern for the mid-week system. 850's are below 0c; however, only light-moderate pcpn is being depicted on the NAM so we're talking mid/upper 30's and a chilly rain. This can change - just saying it looks like rain atm. Soundings don't support snow anywhere but far NW NJ and the poconos/catskills.
[/quote]

Storm, agree unless precip rates are higher and bring heights down (doesn't look like it now). I still have a good shot of wet snow where I am but not a big deal. If all falls into place could be a 1" to 3" snow event inland and just flakes in the air on the coast before a change to some light rain showers.

thats why I said it looks like
[img width=32 height=36]http://i13.tinypic.com/40o5j07.gif[/img]

[/quote]

Rgwp96, but we have a shot of snow (although light) -- Butler / West Milford, etc.

robbbs, heres the nams 2m temps for the week, look a little warm.  Im sure they can change but the way this winter has gone I wouldnt count on it.  We couldnt get snow at 10 degrees  :Dso I dont like our chances at 35 ;)

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/animatio...6&file=anim

Rgwp, just lleft a post on this on another thread. Mid 30's at the surface but below freezing just above. Higher terrain would have no issue staying all snow. However, not a big deal as it's light precip amounts.

Maybe at your house. Depends on locations. Snow squalls are very locallized; hence, most of us will probably see nada tonight -- but the areas that do see something can pick up a quick T-1" or more.

Whoo-hoo!.......NOT!  :(  :'( 4... can't we just get a measly 4. Okay, I'll take 3 even!  :D

After a shot-lived cold snap tonight and tomorrow, the high goes east and the wind southwesterly.

The next system cuts across southern Canada Tuesday. The GFS shows little in the way of an upper trough with this system, as some of the other models really deepen the system and tap more moisture. That would make for the idea of a coastal south of the city. But it looks like the trough runs out ahead too fast, the deeper trough would allow for cooler air to work into the city, and therefore a better chance for light snow Tuesday night.  I think in the city and coastal sections it's rain and then mixes to a little snow as it ends Wednesday morning. Maybe a little more in the way of snow N & W of the city.

Not a MECS but could bring a nuisance snowfall. 

We really warm-up Wednesday and Thursday. A big system cuts up to the Great Lakes this weekend, but that as you know, puts us in the rain sector.

Bill Evans

thanks bill,do u think we will get colder after next week and do u see a stormy pattern ahead?

I think that after next week we are cold enough for a storm1

Bill Evans

My ideas from this morning are on track. Center city PHL receiving < 1/4 miles visibilities right now in snow squalls. Another batch of snow showers up towards Somerset county moving rapidly ESE towards central NJ. Surface temperatures generally <32 areawide so a quick T-1" is possible through this evening. Cannot rule out a 2" up towards the poconos in more persistent squalls.

[img width=600 height=450]http://radblast-aa.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=DIX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.130&noclutter=0&t=1171830754&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=630&centery=763&transx=230&transy=523&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0[/img]

AW's graphic shows the rain/snow line right down the middle of Robbbs driveway.

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-stor...0&article=4